Selasa, Januari 19, 2010

Toward the end of the third quarter-2008, the world economy faced with the one-act the collapse of the new global economic stability, along with the financial crisis spread to the various countries. The global financial crisis began appeared since August 2007, namely at the time one of France's biggest bank BNP Paribas announced the freezing of some securities associated with risky housing loans High U.S. (subprime mortgage). This freezing then began to trigger turmoil in financial markets and eventually spread to the whole world. In end-third quarter of 2008, the intensity of the crisis grew larger as the bankruptcy of largest U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, which followed by a growing financial difficulties severe in a number of financial institutions scale major in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

World financial crisis has been impact to the economy of Indonesia as reflected the turmoil in capital markets and the market money. Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) on December 2008 level to close at 1355.4, cut almost in half from levels in early in 2008 of 2627.3, together with the fall of the market capitalization value and a decrease stock trading volume sharply. Outflow foreign ownership of stocks, government securities (SUN), and SBI continues. Until the end of December 2008, foreign positions in the SUN recorded Rp.87, 4 trillion, lower than September 2008 position which could reach Rp104, 3 trillion. While foreign positions in SBI recorded Rp.8, 4 trillion, down sharply August 2008 compared to the position of Rp.68, 4 trillion. At the same time, the rupiah come corrected sharply to reach levels Rp10.900/USD at the end of December 2008. Condition performance is in line with the balance of payments showed a decrease since the third quarter-2008, as reflected in the increasing deficit running transactions (current account) and start deficit balance of capital and financial transactions (financial accounts).

Increased transaction deficit walking primarily sourced from the slump in performance exports in line with the economic contraction accompanied by a global decline in prices various commodities exports. Meanwhile, difficulties global financial liquidity and increased behavioral risk aversion from foreign investors triggered the re-allocation to safer assets (flight to quality) also resulted in decreasing performance of the capital account and financial transactions. Following depressed export performance in significantly, the business community began to affected and waves of layoffs began occur, especially in industries oriented exports such as wood industry, textiles, and canning. In the reporting period, the global crisis is still took place and even at the end of January 2009, England has officially entered the period of recession following the GDP growth Fourth-quarter 2008 to a negative return in two last quarter. In the midst of efforts performed rescue economy governments of countries 1, the wave of bankruptcies of banking business and industry followed by termination of employment continue to occur in various parts of the world.

With a background like this condition, The most relevant question then arises is how far this crisis will affect the Indonesia's economy. Discussion of the impact the global crisis on Indonesia's economy will be preceded by a chronological and background behind the crisis. Further discussion equipped with a study of the transmission inclusion impact of the global crisis in Indonesia's economy.

Political shocks last few months as described by some observers as "dangerous disaster" was not much impact on the economic sector. This means that market players continue to put faith in government, especially President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who considered able to control security is required of investors. Government in the next five years to target economic growth of 7% from the current 4%. Then targeted in poverty fell from 14% to 8 to 10% and the unemployment rate from 8% to 5% or 6%. President of Indonesia to assess the success of one of the few countries that recorded positive economic growth in 2009 supported a number of factors, including political conditions of relative stability, good social cohesion, and security maintained. Another factor is law enforcement, the success of anti-corruption campaign, which organized decentralization, as well as foreign cooperation concrete.

At least there are five important issues that will be the focus of government in this second period. The fifth issue is investment, infrastructure, financing, domestic market, and global cooperation. Also expected role of capital markets in the real sector has increased this year. Increasing the role is directed to reduce poverty and create jobs. Finance Minister optimistic over the capital market can contribute to economic growth. In line with the government that will actually maintain stability in the industrial growth in 2010. 2009 last year, Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) to record the best increase in ASEAN. This growth, not only due to the positive sentiment in the country, but also the company's fundamentals. At the end of 2009, stock price composite index (JCI) on the Stock Exchange closed at 2534.36 level, rising 86.98% compared to the closing in 2008. This achievement makes the stock market performance of Indonesia being the best in the ASEAN and number two in Asia Pacific.

JCI due to the positive performance supported by a public company real achievement and macroeconomic stability are maintained throughout 2009. Total net profit of all listed companies on the Stock Exchange until the third quarter of 2009 rose 48.5% compared to the same period the previous year. The capital market also provides great support to the government and Bank Indonesia in order to consistently minimize the impact of the global financial crisis.

As we know, years ago there was the top global financial crisis is undermining confidence in the world economy. In such conditions, the government then relaxing various policies to stimulate the economy. The government also sought to continue to maintain communication and credibility in the face of market participants. In addition, Indonesia has become one country that is able to record positive economic growth in 2009. Even one of the best among the G-20 countries are. For this year a number of economic indicators showing the global economic situation is getting better.
A number of circles to give a positive appreciation of the achievements of this JCI. Increasing the contribution of capital markets on the economy as a whole is not easy. It depends on the condition of the economy. With the assumption of economic growth after 5.5%, required fund of Rp. 2100 trillion. Meanwhile, the total emission value of stocks, bonds, and the right issue in the capital market during 2009 only Rp38, 86 trillion, or 1.85% of the total funding needed to create a 5.5% economic growth.